Monthly Outlook

Aside from chilly conditions this weekend, there should be an extended period of mild weather. It will be changeable through the rest of this week and into the start of next week with some wintry precipitation over northern high ground, but more settled conditions should develop during early March as high pressure becomes more dominant.

It will also become warmer, especially from the second half of next week into the following week, with temperatures above or well above the early March average.

Mid-March onwards is very uncertain but there is a chance of some colder weather developing.

Through the rest of this week bands of rain, some heavy, will be interspersed with scattered showers and some brighter weather. It will turn chilly enough, especially during Friday and the weekend, for occasional sleet and snow over higher ground in Wales, northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and maybe as far south as the Midlands briefly, with temperatures near the seasonal average.

There'll be strong winds at times especially on Thursday when northern Scotland could have gales.

Winds will drop at the weekend, meaning an increasing chance of overnight fog patches, alongside a few lingering showers here and there. Frost and ice will also be a risk, although less likely in western regions.

Next week will start unsettled but we will start to lose the chilly weather. There will be a few showers scattered around and perhaps some more persistent rain in places. Any wintriness should become confined to the Highlands. There will still be a chance of fog patches, but the risk of frost will decrease.

Around the middle of the week there will be a bit of a struggle between Atlantic frontal systems edging eastwards and high pressure to the south and east holding them off. This could mean a chance some rain in some northern and western areas of the UK but how far any fronts can progress is questionable.

It's more likely that high pressure will eventually win out, so the second half of the week should see a lot of dry weather. It will be mild or even warm, with temperatures rising above or well above the early March average. South to south-easterly breezes will be brisk at times, and fog risks should mostly disappear.

From mid-March onwards the picture is unclear. Although high pressure should dominate for a while it could shift farther west, and the impact of disturbances and disruptions in the polar vortex could start to filter down to the surface after the middle of March. This might lead to blocking high pressure at high latitudes, possibly building towards Greenland, with low pressure systems steered across mainland Europe.

This could allow some chillier air to move across northern Europe during the second half of the month, with temperatures falling closer to the March average, and there could be a risk of a colder spell if this pattern takes more of a hold. That is very uncertain, however, and can only be called a risk at this point.

It should be drier than average but occasional showers are likely, some of which could be wintry if this pattern develops. Rain could also edge towards the UK from the south.

In the next update we will see if models start giving more than vague indications of possible chillier weather later in March.